Dollar Tree (DLTR:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report


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Dollar Tree $94.16 (USD) Close Price as of 15/03/2018

Based on the analysis conducted in this report, Dollar Tree, (DLTR:NAS) is found to be  Undervalued.

Company Dollar Tree
Symbol:Exchange DLTR:NAS
Industry Consumer Defensive:Discount Stores
Close Price/Date $94.16 (USD) 15/03/2018
Weighted Average Valuation $121.74 (USD)
Summary DLTR:NAS is found to be  Undervalued by 29.3% using the 3 valuation models shown below.
Valuation Models Used Analyst Consensus: $120.40 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $132.08 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $105.10 (USD)
Valuation Methods Analysis This company is:
Cash Flow Basis: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation basis
Comparable Company Basis: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation basis
Asset Basis: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation basis

Valuation Details

Dollar Tree Valuations

Summary chart

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for DLTR:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $132.11 (USD) for DLTR:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

DLTR:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $132.11 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 6.88 $173.31 $104.70
Terminal Growth Rate 1.90 $107.18 $169.58
Tax Rate 0.33 $144.24 $119.99
Cash Flow 3,050,172,700 $123.94 $140.29
Capital Expenditures 240,000 $132.11 $132.11
Long Term Debt 7,301,200,000 $133.65 $130.57

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $132.08 (USD) for DLTR:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $143.35 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Burlington Stores (BURL:NYS), Costco Wholesale (COST:NAS), Dollar General (DG:NYS) and Target (TGT:NYS)

Company DLTR:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $7.21 (USD)
Book Value/Share $25.80 (USD)
Sales/Share $90.65 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $6.78 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.00 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$175.26 (USD) -18.0
$129.13 (USD) 34.3
$86.15 (USD) 42.2
$88.90 (USD) -0.3
$0.00 (USD) -2.2
DLTR:NAS Ratios Used Average Values BURL:NYS COST:NAS DG:NYS TGT:NYS
22.47 PE Ratio 24.31 33.70 29.49 20.76 13.28
3.65 PB Ratio 5.01 0.00 7.35 4.42 3.25
1.04 PS Ratio 0.95 1.55 0.62 1.10 0.54
13.88 PCF Ratio 13.10 17.22 13.78 15.81 5.61
11.38 EV to EBITDA 12.04 15.42 14.26 11.50 6.96

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $129.42 (USD) for DLTR:NAS

Company DLTR:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $7.21 (USD)
Book Value/Share $25.80 (USD)
Sales/Share $90.65 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $6.78 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $9.85 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$193.51 (USD) 0
$103.80 (USD) 0
$110.88 (USD) 0
$112.94 (USD) 0
$125.98 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 26.84
PB Ratio 4.02
PS Ratio 1.22
PCF Ratio 16.65
EV to EBITDA 12.78

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  DLTR:NAS for the last 10 years was  4.06

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  DLTR:NAS and generated a book value of  $25.90 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $105.10 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 5 analysts that provide a valuation for DLTR:NAS. The 5 analysts have a concensus valuation for DLTR:NAS for 2019 of $120.40 (USD).

DLTR:NAS Dollar Tree

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
4 2 0 4.0000 Outperform 2018-3-14

Current Price: not available

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2018 2019 2020
Mean EPS 5.24 5.80 6.74
# EPS Analysts 6 6 4
Mean Revenue 22,245.30 22,994.90 24,398.70
# Revenue Analysts 4 4 3
Mean Target Price 120.40
Mean Cash Flow 6.97 8.33 9.17
Mean EBITDA 2,644.60 2,740.80 2,993.30
Mean Net Income 1,144.70 1,399.10 1,598.60
Mean Debt Outstanding -4,436.70 -2,199.50 -517.10
Mean Tax Rate 34.05 24.00 24.00
Mean Growth Rate 12.12
Mean Capital Expenditure 720.80 722.70 729.40

Company Overview (DLTR:NAS USD)

Price 94.16
Range 93.45 – 95.43
52 week 66.39 – 116.35
Open 94.08
Vol / Avg. 2.77M/3.14M
Mkt cap 22.33B
P/E 22.47
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 3.78
Shares 237.1M
Beta 0.39
Summary chart

Detailed Company Description

Dollar Tree Inc operates discount retail stores in the United States and Canada. It operates the stores under the names of Dollar Tree, Family Dollar and Dollar Tree Canada.

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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