C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report


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C.H. Robinson Worldwide $89.99 (USD) Close Price as of 06/03/2018

Based on the analysis conducted in this report, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, (CHRW:NAS) is found to be  Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued.

Company C.H. Robinson Worldwide
Symbol:Exchange CHRW:NAS
Industry Industrials:Integrated Shipping & Logistics
Close Price/Date $89.99 (USD) 06/03/2018
Weighted Average Valuation $92.91 (USD)
Summary CHRW:NAS is found to be  Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 3.3% using the 3 valuation models shown below.
Valuation Models Used Analyst Consensus: $93.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Discounted Cash Flow: $86.75 (USD)
Comparables: $104.99 (USD)
Valuation Methods Analysis This company is:
Cash Flow Basis: Fairly valued on a Cash Flow Valuation basis
Comparable Company Basis: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation basis
Asset Basis: Fairly valued on an Asset Valuation basis

Valuation Details

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Valuations

Summary chart

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for CHRW:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $86.75 (USD) for CHRW:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

CHRW:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $86.75 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 4.83 $111.97 $70.18
Terminal Growth Rate 0.00 $71.57 $109.85
Tax Rate 0.31 $94.78 $78.72
Cash Flow 1,127,200,000 $81.01 $92.49
Capital Expenditures -40,881,400 $86.55 $86.95
Long Term Debt 1,225,000,000 $87.19 $86.31

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $104.99 (USD) for CHRW:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $62.20 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Expeditors International (EXPD:NAS), JB Hunt Transport (JBHT:NAS), Landstar System (LSTR:NAS) and XPO Logistics (XPO:NYS)

Company CHRW:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.57 (USD)
Book Value/Share $10.20 (USD)
Sales/Share $105.17 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.72 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $6.14 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$98.65 (USD) -39.5
$59.13 (USD) 78.8
$147.42 (USD) -7.2
$59.99 (USD) 73.9
$76.92 (USD) 54.0
CHRW:NAS Ratios Used Average Values EXPD:NAS JBHT:NAS LSTR:NAS XPO:NYS
25.21 PE Ratio 27.63 23.69 19.19 25.80 41.87
8.82 PB Ratio 5.80 5.65 7.08 7.01 3.45
0.86 PS Ratio 1.40 1.67 1.83 1.25 0.85
33.13 PCF Ratio 22.09 23.69 15.40 32.84 16.41
15.79 EV to EBITDA 14.22 13.61 13.98 15.59 13.68

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $74.27 (USD) for CHRW:NAS

Company CHRW:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.57 (USD)
Book Value/Share $10.20 (USD)
Sales/Share $105.17 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.72 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $6.14 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$74.50 (USD) 0
$88.22 (USD) 0
$82.05 (USD) 0
$48.94 (USD) 0
$77.64 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 20.87
PB Ratio 8.65
PS Ratio 0.78
PCF Ratio 18.02
EV to EBITDA 12.64

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  CHRW:NAS for the last 10 years was  8.63

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  CHRW:NAS and generated a book value of  $10.22 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $88.20 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 5 analysts that provide a valuation for CHRW:NAS. The 5 analysts have a concensus valuation for CHRW:NAS for 2018 of $93.00 (USD).

CHRW:NAS C.H. Robinson Worldwide

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 4 1 2.8571 Hold 2018-3-5

Current Price: not available

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2018 2019 2020
Mean EPS 4.44 4.93 5.34
# EPS Analysts 7 6 2
Mean Revenue 16,147.90 17,047.90 18,534.10
# Revenue Analysts 5 5 2
Mean Target Price 93.00
Mean Cash Flow 5.23 5.77 6.23
Mean EBITDA 994.20 1,061.10 1,127.20
Mean Net Income 619.90 671.40 716.60
Mean Debt Outstanding 118.30 189.60 222.70
Mean Tax Rate 23.25 23.25
Mean Growth Rate 11.40
Mean Capital Expenditure 73.30 72.70 75.20

Company Overview (CHRW:NAS USD)

Price 89.99
Range 89.64 – 90.84
52 week 64.98 – 96.73
Open 90.17
Vol / Avg. 937608/1.24M
Mkt cap 12.59B
P/E 25.21
Div/yield 1.84/0.02
EPS 3.57
Shares 139.87M
Beta 0.63
Summary chart

Detailed Company Description

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc is a non-asset-based third-party logistics provider. The company provides domestic freight brokerage services. It also operates a growing air and ocean forwarding unit and a legacy produce-sourcing operation.

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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