Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report


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Applied Optoelectronics $27.82 (USD) Close Price as of 01/03/2018

Based on the analysis conducted in this report, Applied Optoelectronics, (AAOI:NAS) is found to be  Undervalued.

Company Applied Optoelectronics
Symbol:Exchange AAOI:NAS
Industry Technology:Semiconductors
Close Price/Date $27.82 (USD) 01/03/2018
Weighted Average Valuation $45.87 (USD)
Summary AAOI:NAS is found to be  Undervalued by 64.9% using the 3 valuation models shown below.
Valuation Models Used Analyst Consensus: $55.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $36.81 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $36.63 (USD)
Valuation Methods Analysis This company is:
Cash Flow Basis: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation basis
Comparable Company Basis: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation basis
Asset Basis: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation basis

Valuation Details

Applied Optoelectronics Valuations

Summary chart

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AAOI:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $7.60 (USD) for AAOI:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

AAOI:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $7.60 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 13.32 $9.04 $6.42
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $6.60 $8.82
Tax Rate 0.40 $9.49 $5.72
Cash Flow 100,837,000 $6.20 $9.00
Capital Expenditures -31,975,800 $7.18 $8.02
Long Term Debt 92,293,000 $7.84 $7.36

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $36.81 (USD) for AAOI:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $54.50 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Diodes (DIOD:NAS), FormFactor (FORM:NAS), Inphi (IPHI:NYS), Oclaro (OCLR:NAS) and Power Integrations (POWI:NAS)

Company AAOI:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.67 (USD)
Book Value/Share $16.74 (USD)
Sales/Share $20.02 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.46 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.00 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$59.45 (USD) -54.2
$41.77 (USD) -27.9
$52.84 (USD) -47.0
$61.87 (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) 99.9
AAOI:NAS Ratios Used Average Values DIOD:NAS FORM:NAS IPHI:NYS OCLR:NAS POWI:NAS
6.62 PE Ratio 35.52 0.00 23.73 0.00 8.67 74.17
1.66 PB Ratio 2.50 1.75 2.08 2.88 2.13 3.64
1.39 PS Ratio 2.64 1.37 1.77 3.33 2.00 4.72
6.24 PCF Ratio 13.88 8.00 11.22 15.00 10.33 24.85
4.61 EV to EBITDA 29.96 8.84 10.05 103.68 6.40 20.81

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $60.62 (USD) for AAOI:NAS

Company AAOI:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.67 (USD)
Book Value/Share $16.74 (USD)
Sales/Share $20.02 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.46 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.83 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$115.96 (USD) 0
$34.77 (USD) 0
$38.24 (USD) 0
$80.91 (USD) 0
$33.23 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 31.60
PB Ratio 2.08
PS Ratio 1.91
PCF Ratio 18.15
EV to EBITDA 18.13

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AAOI:NAS for the last 5 years was  2.08

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AAOI:NAS and generated a book value of  $17.63 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $36.63 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for AAOI:NAS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for AAOI:NAS for 2018 of $55.00 (USD).

AAOI:NAS Applied Optoelectronics

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2018-2-28

Current Price: not available

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2017 2018 2019
Mean EPS 4.61 2.43 3.23
# EPS Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Revenue 382.30 354.00 430.00
# Revenue Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Target Price 55.00
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA 117.30 78.20 97.90
Mean Net Income 93.00 53.10 70.80
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 2.70 10.00 10.00
Mean Growth Rate 16.00
Mean Capital Expenditure

Company Overview (AAOI:NAS USD)

Price 27.82
Range 27.11 – 28.20
52 week 27.33 – 99.61
Open 27.90
Vol / Avg. 1.13M/832975
Mkt cap 538.57M
P/E 6.62
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 1.76
Shares 19.36M
Beta 1.24
Summary chart

Detailed Company Description

Applied Optoelectronics Inc is a vertically integrated provider of fiber-optic networking products,for four networking end-markets: internet data center, cable television, or CATV, telecommunications, or telecom, fiber-to-the-home, or FTTH.

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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