Douglas Emmett (DEI:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report


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Douglas Emmett $36.59 (USD) Close Price as of 20/02/2018

Based on the analysis conducted in this report, Douglas Emmett, (DEI:NYS) is found to be  Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued.

Company Douglas Emmett
Symbol:Exchange DEI:NYS
Industry Real Estate:REIT-Office
Close Price/Date $36.59 (USD) 20/02/2018
Weighted Average Valuation $36.23 (USD)
Summary DEI:NYS is found to be  Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 1.0% using the 3 valuation models shown below.
Valuation Models Used Analyst Consensus: $39.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $35.27 (USD)
Comparables: $29.85 (USD)
Valuation Methods Analysis This company is:
Cash Flow Basis: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation basis
Comparable Company Basis: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation basis
Asset Basis: Fairly valued on an Asset Valuation basis

Valuation Details

Douglas Emmett Valuations

Summary chart

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for DEI:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model generates a negative intrinsic value due to one of 1) zero or negative projected cash flows 2) excessive capital expenditures or 3) excessive debt to calculated equity value for DEI:NYS. We have not shown the calculated value here for that reason.

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $29.85 (USD) for DEI:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $62.08 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Boston Properties (BXP:NYS), Columbia Property Trust (CXP:NYS), Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP:NYS), Paramount Group (PGRE:NYS) and Washington REIT (WRE:NYS)

Company DEI:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.58 (USD)
Book Value/Share $14.38 (USD)
Sales/Share $5.04 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.50 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.26 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$29.46 (USD) 0.0
$23.78 (USD) 4.7
$33.74 (USD) 11.5
$56.19 (USD) -58.3
$32.87 (USD) 3.0
DEI:NYS Ratios Used Average Values BXP:NYS CXP:NYS HPP:NYS PGRE:NYS WRE:NYS
63.09 PE Ratio 50.80 37.71 14.86 69.84 38.16 93.43
2.55 PB Ratio 1.65 3.28 1.02 1.32 0.81 1.84
7.26 PS Ratio 6.70 7.13 9.03 6.49 4.64 6.20
14.65 PCF Ratio 22.50 20.79 42.14 16.14 17.56 15.85
19.27 EV to EBITDA 17.89 17.60 25.49 15.29 13.09 17.99

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $48.19 (USD) for DEI:NYS

Company DEI:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.58 (USD)
Book Value/Share $14.38 (USD)
Sales/Share $5.04 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.50 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.26 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$52.16 (USD) 0
$36.46 (USD) 0
$40.56 (USD) 0
$45.59 (USD) 0
$66.17 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 89.93
PB Ratio 2.54
PS Ratio 8.05
PCF Ratio 18.25
EV to EBITDA 20.27

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  DEI:NYS for the last 10 years was  2.45

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  DEI:NYS and generated a book value of  $14.38 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $35.27 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for DEI:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for DEI:NYS for 2018 of $39.00 (USD).

DEI:NYS Douglas Emmett

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 2 1 2.3333 Underperform 2018-2-19

Current Price: not available

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2018 2019
Mean EPS 0.74 0.81
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 852.40 874.90
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 39.00
Mean Cash Flow 2.14 2.22
Mean EBITDA 543.20 560.90
Mean Net Income 126.00 138.90
Mean Debt Outstanding -4,034.50 -3,955.60
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 8.00
Mean Capital Expenditure 75.00 75.80

Company Overview (DEI:NYS USD)

Price 36.59
Range 36.44 – 37.16
52 week 34.93 – 41.39
Open 36.44
Vol / Avg. 1.26M/1.2M
Mkt cap 6.2B
P/E 63.09
Div/yield 1.00/0.03
EPS 0.58
Shares 169.49M
Beta 1.39
Summary chart

Detailed Company Description

Douglas Emmett Inc acquires, develops, and manages office and multifamily properties in United States. The company mainly focuses on owning office buildings in communities with large supply constraints, such as Los Angeles.

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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