Citrix Systems (CTXS:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report


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Citrix Systems $91.78 (USD) Close Price as of 20/02/2018

Based on the analysis conducted in this report, Citrix Systems, (CTXS:NAS) is found to be  Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued.

Company Citrix Systems
Symbol:Exchange CTXS:NAS
Industry Technology:Software-Infrastructure
Close Price/Date $91.78 (USD) 20/02/2018
Weighted Average Valuation $94.00 (USD)
Summary CTXS:NAS is found to be  Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 2.4% using the 1 valuation models shown below.
Valuation Models Used Analyst Consensus: $94.00 (USD)
(in order of importance)
Valuation Methods Analysis This company is:
Cash Flow Basis: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation basis
Comparable Company Basis: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation basis
Asset Basis: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation basis

Valuation Details

Citrix Systems Valuations

Summary chart

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for CTXS:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $50.63 (USD) for CTXS:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

CTXS:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $50.63 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 10.99 $59.32 $43.88
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $44.94 $57.95
Tax Rate 0.40 $54.48 $46.77
Cash Flow 1,122,059,758 $48.11 $53.15
Capital Expenditures -140,840,400 $50.31 $50.95
Long Term Debt 1,338,782,000 $51.07 $50.18

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $114.66 (USD) for CTXS:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $187.30 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were CA (CA:NAS), Fair Isaac (FICO:NYS), Nutanix (NTNX:NAS), The Ultimate Software Gr (ULTI:NAS) and VMware (VMW:NYS)

Company CTXS:NAS End Date Value
Cash/Share $7.17 (USD)
Book Value/Share $7.29 (USD)
MarketCap 12,495,925,563
1 Year Return 0.140
NetPPE 252,932,000
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$401.00 (USD) 0
$69.05 (USD) 0
$90.65 (USD) 0
$99.02 (USD) 0
$276.78 (USD) 0
Ratios Used Average Values CA:NAS FICO:NYS NTNX:NAS ULTI:NAS VMW:NYS
Cash / Share 2.19 6.67 3.28 0.98 0.00 0.00
Book Value / Share 12.93 13.77 13.87 0.77 15.97 20.27
Market Cap 14,096,117,938 13,834,444,434 4,380,908,792 3,189,561,215 6,182,767,457 42,892,907,794
1 Year Return 0.23 0.09 0.32 0.13 0.25 0.35
Net PPE 111,925,000 237,000,000 40,703,000 58,072,000 0 0

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $65.99 (USD) for CTXS:NAS

Company CTXS:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.13) (USD)
Book Value/Share $7.29 (USD)
Sales/Share $18.16 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $5.84 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.96 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$41.20 (USD) 0
$69.39 (USD) 0
$73.98 (USD) 0
$79.38 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 34.86
PB Ratio 5.65
PS Ratio 3.82
PCF Ratio 12.67
EV to EBITDA 15.99

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  CTXS:NAS for the last 10 years was  5.55

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  CTXS:NAS and generated a book value of  $6.91 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $38.33 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 4 analysts that provide a valuation for CTXS:NAS. The 4 analysts have a concensus valuation for CTXS:NAS for 2018 of $94.00 (USD).

CTXS:NAS Citrix Systems

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 4 0 3.1667 Hold 2018-2-19

Current Price: not available

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2018 2019 2020
Mean EPS 4.92 5.44 6.31
# EPS Analysts 4 3 1
Mean Revenue 2,876.10 2,973.00 3,129.20
# Revenue Analysts 3 2 1
Mean Target Price 94.00
Mean Cash Flow 6.01
Mean EBITDA 855.50 1,035.00
Mean Net Income 712.90 759.00
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 6.86
Mean Capital Expenditure 89.10

Company Overview (CTXS:NAS USD)

Price 91.78
Range 90.60 – 92.32
52 week 74.52 – 94.70
Open 90.92
Vol / Avg. 2.37M/3.89M
Mkt cap 13.82B
P/E 655.57
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -0.13
Shares 150.63M
Beta 1.33
Summary chart

Detailed Company Description

Citrix Systems Inc provides virtualization, networking and cloud infrastructure solutions. It provides a complete and integrated portfolio of application delivery, virtualization, mobility, network delivery and file sharing solutions.

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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