The Carlyle Group (CG:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report


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The Carlyle Group $23.30 (USD) Close Price as of 16/02/2018

Based on the analysis conducted in this report, The Carlyle Group, (CG:NAS) is found to be  Undervalued.

Company The Carlyle Group
Symbol:Exchange CG:NAS
Industry Financial Services:Asset Management
Close Price/Date $23.30 (USD) 16/02/2018
Weighted Average Valuation $28.48 (USD)
Summary CG:NAS is found to be  Undervalued by 22.2% using the 2 valuation models shown below.
Valuation Models Used Analyst Consensus: $29.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $27.69 (USD)
Valuation Methods Analysis This company is:
Cash Flow Basis: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation basis
Comparable Company Basis: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation basis
Asset Basis: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation basis

Valuation Details

The Carlyle Group Valuations

Summary chart

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for CG:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $130.02 (USD) for CG:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

CG:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $130.02 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 9.66 $156.14 $110.74
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $113.44 $152.47
Tax Rate 0.11 $134.18 $125.87
Cash Flow 2,185,009,048 $126.28 $133.76
Capital Expenditures -36,180,000 $129.97 $130.08
Long Term Debt 4,638,100,000 $130.71 $129.33

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $27.69 (USD) for CG:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $40.85 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Ares Capital (ARCC:NAS), Ares Management (ARES:NYS), Eaton Vance (EV:NYS), Oaktree Capital Group (OAK:NYS) and Voya Financial (VOYA:NYS)

Company CG:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.38 (USD)
Book Value/Share $3.03 (USD)
Sales/Share $36.73 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($0.07) (USD)
EBITDA/Share $16.38 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$51.13 (USD) 0.0
$20.94 (USD) 0.0
$105.15 (USD) -89.5
$0.00 (USD) -94.8
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
CG:NAS Ratios Used Average Values ARCC:NAS ARES:NYS EV:NYS OAK:NYS VOYA:NYS
9.79 PE Ratio 21.48 10.18 42.95 23.10 9.70 0.00
7.68 PB Ratio 6.91 0.96 18.86 6.55 7.53 0.64
0.63 PS Ratio 2.86 5.85 1.40 4.26 1.84 0.96
0.00 PCF Ratio 52.29 0.00 0.00 100.30 0.00 4.28
3.52 EV to EBITDA 14.52 12.45 30.88 11.15 3.59 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $63.23 (USD) for CG:NAS

Company CG:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.38 (USD)
Book Value/Share $3.03 (USD)
Sales/Share $36.73 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($0.07) (USD)
EBITDA/Share $16.38 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$56.42 (USD) 0
$42.95 (USD) 0
$56.20 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$97.34 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 23.71
PB Ratio 14.16
PS Ratio 1.53
PCF Ratio 2.07
EV to EBITDA 5.94

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  CG:NAS for the last 6 years was  14.16

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  CG:NAS and generated a book value of  $3.04 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $42.99 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 4 analysts that provide a valuation for CG:NAS. The 4 analysts have a concensus valuation for CG:NAS for 2018 of $29.00 (USD).

CG:NAS The Carlyle Group

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 2 0 4.0000 Outperform 2018-2-15

Current Price: not available

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2018 2019 2020
Mean EPS 2.65 2.65 2.60
# EPS Analysts 3 3 2
Mean Revenue 3,066.80 2,905.50 3,087.30
# Revenue Analysts 2 2 2
Mean Target Price 29.00
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA 854.70 1,091.60 1,049.50
Mean Net Income 838.50 1,039.70 1,269.00
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 11.10 11.10 12.00
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Company Overview (CG:NAS USD)

Price 23.30
Range 23.15 – 23.95
52 week 15.50 – 25.85
Open 23.95
Vol / Avg. 670315/598443
Mkt cap 7.79B
P/E 9.79
Div/yield 1.41/0.06
EPS 2.38
Shares 334.42M
Beta 1.74
Summary chart

Detailed Company Description

The Carlyle Group LP is a global alternative asset management firm. It operates business across, Corporate Private Equity, Global Market Strategies, Real Assets, and Investment Solutions segments.

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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