Choice Properties REIT (CHP.UN:TSE) Fundamental Valuation Report


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Choice Properties REIT $12.49 (CAD) Close Price as of 14/02/2018

Based on the analysis conducted in this report, Choice Properties REIT, (CHP.UN:TSE) is found to be  Undervalued.

Company Choice Properties REIT
Symbol:Exchange CHP.UN:TSE
Industry Real Estate:REIT-Retail
Close Price/Date $12.49 (CAD) 14/02/2018
Weighted Average Valuation $13.30 (CAD)
Summary CHP.UN:TSE is found to be  Undervalued by 6.5% using the 3 valuation models shown below.
Valuation Models Used Analyst Consensus: $14.54 (CAD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $9.08 (CAD)
Comparables: $18.05 (CAD)
Valuation Methods Analysis This company is:
Cash Flow Basis: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation basis
Comparable Company Basis: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation basis
Asset Basis: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation basis

Valuation Details

Choice Properties REIT Valuations

Summary chart

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for CHP.UN:TSE

Using a discounted cash flow model generates a negative intrinsic value due to one of 1) zero or negative projected cash flows 2) excessive capital expenditures or 3) excessive debt to calculated equity value for CHP.UN:TSE. We have not shown the calculated value here for that reason.

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $14.85 (CAD) for CHP.UN:TSE. We also generated a valuation of $18.05 (CAD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were CT Real Estate Investment (CRT.UN:TSE), Plaza Retail REIT (PLZ.UN:TSE) and Slate Retail REIT (SRT.UN:TSE)

Company CHP.UN:TSE End Date Value
Cash/Share $0.00 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $9.63 (CAD)
MarketCap 1,172,232,063
1 Year Return -0.115
NetPPE 0
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (CAD) 0
$27.95 (CAD) 0
$14.49 (CAD) 0
$11.72 (CAD) 0
$0.00 (CAD) 0
Ratios Used Average Values CRT.UN:TSE PLZ.UN:TSE SRT.UN:TSE
Cash / Share 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.00
Book Value / Share 3.37 5.31 4.50 0.29
Market Cap 1,360,031,334 3,048,649,456 455,570,035 575,874,511
1 Year Return -0.17 -0.14 -0.21 -0.15
Net PPE 0 0 0 0

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $36.72 (CAD) for CHP.UN:TSE

Company CHP.UN:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share $6.71 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $9.63 (CAD)
Sales/Share $8.70 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share $5.79 (CAD)
EBITDA/Share $1.12 (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$45.51 (CAD) 0
$14.22 (CAD) 0
$54.68 (CAD) 0
$47.56 (CAD) 0
$21.61 (CAD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 6.78
PB Ratio 1.48
PS Ratio 6.29
PCF Ratio 8.22
EV to EBITDA 19.30

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  CHP.UN:TSE for the last 5 years was  1.48

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  CHP.UN:TSE and generated a book value of  $6.15 (CAD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $9.08 (CAD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 7 analysts that provide a valuation for CHP.UN:TSE. The 7 analysts have a concensus valuation for CHP.UN:TSE for 2018 of $14.54 (CAD).

CHP.UN:TSE Choice Properties REIT

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 7 0 3.0000 Hold 2018-2-13

Current Price: not available

Analyst Consensus
CAD Millions 2017 2018 2019
Mean EPS 1.04 1.07 1.11
# EPS Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Revenue 825.70 859.80 905.80
# Revenue Analysts 4 4 2
Mean Target Price 14.54
Mean Cash Flow 1.05 1.09 1.11
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Company Overview (CHP.UN:TSE CAD)

Price 12.49
Range 12.14 – 12.52
52 week 12.22 – 14.30
Open 12.31
Vol / Avg. 51915/94740
Mkt cap 1.17B
P/E 1.86
Div/yield 0.74/0.06
EPS -2.41
Shares 93.85M
Beta 0.45
Summary chart

Detailed Company Description

Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust is a player in the real estate sector. The company functions as a real estate investment trust which primarily is focused on managing supermarkets.

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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