McCormick & Co (MKC.V:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report


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McCormick & Co $109.06 (USD) Close Price as of 31/01/2018

Based on the analysis conducted in this report, McCormick & Co, (MKC.V:NYS) is found to be  Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued.

Company McCormick & Co
Symbol:Exchange MKC.V:NYS
Industry Consumer Defensive:Packaged Foods
Close Price/Date $109.06 (USD) 31/01/2018
Weighted Average Valuation $110.29 (USD)
Summary MKC.V:NYS is found to be  Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 1.1% using the 3 valuation models shown below.
Valuation Models Used Analyst Consensus: $100.25 (USD)
(in order of importance) Discounted Cash Flow: $130.47 (USD)
Comparables: $100.06 (USD)
Valuation Methods Analysis This company is:
Cash Flow Basis: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation basis
Comparable Company Basis: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation basis
Asset Basis: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation basis

Valuation Details

McCormick & Co Valuations

Summary chart

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for MKC.V:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $130.47 (USD) for MKC.V:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

MKC.V:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $130.47 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 5.73 $166.18 $106.61
Terminal Growth Rate 0.70 $108.85 $162.83
Tax Rate 0.25 $139.76 $121.18
Cash Flow 1,258,850,700 $123.55 $137.39
Capital Expenditures 1,360,000 $130.48 $130.46
Long Term Debt 1,617,800,000 $131.09 $129.85

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $100.06 (USD) for MKC.V:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $78.68 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were General Mills (GIS:NYS), Hain Celestial Group (HAIN:NAS), Hormel Foods (HRL:NYS), Snyder’s-Lance (LNCE:NAS) and Pinnacle Foods (PF:NYS)

Company MKC.V:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.72 (USD)
Book Value/Share $19.53 (USD)
Sales/Share $37.65 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $6.35 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $6.35 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$125.59 (USD) -33.3
$78.97 (USD) -7.2
$76.35 (USD) 87.7
$115.07 (USD) -52.3
$102.77 (USD) 41.2
MKC.V:NYS Ratios Used Average Values GIS:NYS HAIN:NAS HRL:NYS LNCE:NAS PF:NYS
31.57 PE Ratio 33.76 21.42 50.18 21.87 0.00 41.57
5.59 PB Ratio 4.04 7.87 2.24 3.68 2.68 3.75
2.90 PS Ratio 2.03 2.20 1.38 2.02 2.16 2.37
17.18 PCF Ratio 18.12 12.25 21.58 18.32 21.11 17.35
23.42 EV to EBITDA 22.34 13.53 23.26 12.65 43.94 18.33

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $115.74 (USD) for MKC.V:NYS

Company MKC.V:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.72 (USD)
Book Value/Share $19.53 (USD)
Sales/Share $37.65 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $6.35 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $6.35 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$106.79 (USD) 0
$126.03 (USD) 0
$101.70 (USD) 0
$126.95 (USD) 0
$117.25 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 28.71
PB Ratio 6.45
PS Ratio 2.70
PCF Ratio 19.99
EV to EBITDA 18.46

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  MKC.V:NYS for the last 10 years was  6.23

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  MKC.V:NYS and generated a book value of  $19.54 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $121.77 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 4 analysts that provide a valuation for MKC.V:NYS. The 4 analysts have a concensus valuation for MKC.V:NYS for 2018 of $100.25 (USD).

MKC.V:NYS McCormick & Co

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 3 2 2.1667 Underperform 2018-1-30

Current Price: not available

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2018 2019 2020
Mean EPS 4.81 5.14 5.75
# EPS Analysts 5 4 3
Mean Revenue 5,420.40 5,642.60 5,835.10
# Revenue Analysts 4 3 3
Mean Target Price 100.25
Mean Cash Flow 5.43 6.33 6.78
Mean EBITDA 1,082.00 1,185.20 1,250.10
Mean Net Income 629.10 688.80 746.30
Mean Debt Outstanding 50.00 46.40 11.80
Mean Tax Rate 24.00 24.00 24.00
Mean Growth Rate 10.06
Mean Capital Expenditure 180.40 169.20 175.20

Company Overview (MKC.V:NYS USD)

Price 109.06
Range 108.00 – 109.06
52 week 92.15 – 109.06
Open 108.00
Vol / Avg. 2107/1276
Mkt cap 14.29B
P/E 31.57
Div/yield 2.08/0.02
EPS 3.72
Shares 131M
Beta 0.47
Summary chart

Detailed Company Description

McCormick & Co Inc acts as a manufacturer, marketer, and distributor of spices, herbs, extracts, seasonings, and other flavorings. It serves its products to quick-service restaurants, retail grocery chains, and packaged food processors.

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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