Coherent (COHR:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report


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Coherent $299.98 (USD) Close Price as of 08/01/2018

Based on the analysis conducted in this report, Coherent, (COHR:NAS) is found to be  Undervalued.

Company Coherent
Symbol:Exchange COHR:NAS
Industry Technology:Scientific & Technical Instruments
Close Price/Date $299.98 (USD) 08/01/2018
Weighted Average Valuation $318.67 (USD)
Summary COHR:NAS is found to be  Undervalued by 6.2% using the 3 valuation models shown below.
Valuation Models Used Analyst Consensus: $348.67 (USD)
(in order of importance) Discounted Cash Flow: $286.10 (USD)
Comparables: $293.80 (USD)
Valuation Methods Analysis This company is:
Cash Flow Basis: Fairly valued on a Cash Flow Valuation basis
Comparable Company Basis: Fairly valued on a Comparable Valuation basis
Asset Basis: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation basis

Valuation Details

Coherent Valuations

Summary chart

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for COHR:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $286.10 (USD) for COHR:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

COHR:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $286.10 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 7.64 $357.99 $238.05
Terminal Growth Rate 2.60 $242.43 $351.41
Tax Rate 0.31 $307.36 $264.85
Cash Flow 603,867,476 $270.77 $301.44
Capital Expenditures -34,980,800 $285.23 $286.97
Long Term Debt 20,000,000 $286.14 $286.06

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $293.80 (USD) for COHR:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $372.25 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were FLIR Systems (FLIR:NAS), Itron (ITRI:NAS), Keysight Technologies (KEYS:NYS), MKS Instruments (MKSI:NAS) and Trimble (TRMB:NAS)

Company COHR:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $8.36 (USD)
Book Value/Share $46.87 (USD)
Sales/Share $69.55 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $15.50 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $17.79 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$379.82 (USD) 64.7
$174.70 (USD) -31.2
$212.22 (USD) -16.0
$341.83 (USD) -31.5
$297.51 (USD) 4.5
COHR:NAS Ratios Used Average Values FLIR:NAS ITRI:NAS KEYS:NYS MKSI:NAS TRMB:NAS
35.63 PE Ratio 45.43 31.64 41.20 79.59 18.15 56.59
6.40 PB Ratio 3.73 3.64 3.54 3.61 3.65 4.19
4.31 PS Ratio 3.05 3.87 1.41 2.54 3.08 4.36
19.35 PCF Ratio 22.05 23.04 18.63 25.92 17.02 25.64
17.16 EV to EBITDA 18.08 18.30 15.18 19.79 10.74 26.38

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $217.87 (USD) for COHR:NAS

Company COHR:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $8.36 (USD)
Book Value/Share $46.87 (USD)
Sales/Share $69.55 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $15.50 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $17.79 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$241.64 (USD) 0
$113.87 (USD) 0
$193.75 (USD) 0
$304.96 (USD) 0
$235.11 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 28.90
PB Ratio 2.43
PS Ratio 2.79
PCF Ratio 19.67
EV to EBITDA 13.22

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  COHR:NAS for the last 10 years was  2.36

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  COHR:NAS and generated a book value of  $47.23 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $111.51 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for COHR:NAS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for COHR:NAS for 2018 of $348.67 (USD).

COHR:NAS Coherent

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
3 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2018-1-5

Current Price: not available

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2018 2019
Mean EPS 15.43 19.31
# EPS Analysts 2 1
Mean Revenue 1,962.00
# Revenue Analysts 1
Mean Target Price 348.67
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 30.00
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Company Overview (COHR:NAS USD)

Price 224.99
Range 221.72 – 230.27
52 week 142.13 – 319.44
Open 224.15
Vol / Avg. 438573/128956
Mkt cap 5.54B
P/E 45.36
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 2.46
Shares 24.63M
Beta 1.05
Summary chart

Detailed Company Description

Coherent Inc is a supplier of photonics-based solutions in a range of commercial and scientific research applications. It designs, manufactures, services and markets lasers and related accessories for a diverse group of customers.

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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